Public debt
Gerrit: Worldwide public debts are overloading and government spending is constrained. How would you expect that can influence the European infrastructure market in general?
Bert: Constrained public finances are certainly positive in the short to medium term as it is likely to encourage states to privatize infrastructure assets or to encourage private investors to participate. We do not think there would be over supply – the pool of infrastructure capital is big enough, and diverse enough.
Inflation
Gerrit: What would you expect for the inflation trend and how could that influence the valuations of your infrastructure assets?
Bert: If the economy crisis does not abate, we believe it is likely that inflation in the Eurozone will be lower than the ECB target of 2% p.a.(at least in the short to medium term). However, this also depends on the relative strength of Euro.
Given that many infrastructure assets have revenues linked (directly or indirectly) to inflation, we expect that such infrastructure assets will continue to act as a natural hedge against inflation and that the valuation of such infrastructure assets will be taking into account current inflation outlooks.
Bert: We also believe the energy/utility sector is likely to provide many interesting opportunities over the short to medium term. Unbundling of utility assets will create need for new ownership. At the same time, utilities in general are feeling capital constrained and hence are pro-actively looking to divest relatively low risk and steady return assets – precisely the kind which infrastructure investors are looking for.
Grontmij Capital Consultants maakt dit najaar de Outlook Infrastructuur 2012 voor haar klanten en bediscussieert deze vooraf met marktexperts. RREEF Infrastructure is een fiduciair manager van meer dan $ 10 miljard aan infrastructuurbeleggingen.
Volgens Preqin - een dataprovider, juli uitgave Preqin infrastruc-ture quaterly – is er wereldwijd nog $ 62,5 miljard aan niet belegd kapitaal beschikbaar bij niet-beursgenoteerde infrastructuur-fondsen.
Bert van den Hoek van RREEF Infrastructure